Poly Real Estate (600048) In-depth Research Report: Leading State-owned Enterprise, Advantage Highlights Undervalued Core Assets
Active progress, high sales growth, ranking improvement, performance entering a bumper period, and the lock-in rate of advance receipts hit a record high. For 16 years, Poly Real Estate has actively changed its goals, held high, actively acquired land, improved management, accelerated turnover, and returned to the high growth track.
16-18 years of sales reached 2,101, 3,092, 4,048 billion US dollars respectively, using this as the CAGR reached 38%, 19H1 sales reached 252.6 billion yuan, distance + 17%, the industry sales ranking rose from the sixth in 15 years to 19H1 fourth,One step further from the company’s top three goals.
Expected sales in the first half of the calendar year account for 50%: 50%, the company is expected to reach 19 billion US dollars in 19, equivalent to an increase of + 24%.
In addition, after two years of accelerated sales in 16 years, the company entered a centralized settlement period, and the completion of the 18 years began to accelerate significantly. The completion distance of 18 and 19H1 reached 43% and 53%, far exceeding the revenue of 33% and 20% during the same period.The completion was faster than the settlement, and the advance receipts continued to increase, reaching 3,621 trillion at the end of 19H1, covering 18 years of revenue of 186%, a record high.
In this context, the 19-year interim report performance increased by + 53%, which is approximately more than the average of the same period in the past 5 years + 14%.
Rich soil reserves, excellent structure, layout of the first and second tiers and urban areas, active land acquisition, and stable costs, the company’s rich soil reserves, excellent structure.
The final area in 19H1 was about 1.
300 million cubic meters (value of goods 1.
9 trillion), of which the saleable area is about 84.99 million yuan (value of goods 1).
31 trillion); in the regional structure, the first and second tiers account for 58%, the three major urban areas account for 61%, and the first and second tiers and urban areas are deeply cultivated.
In terms of land acquisition, it began to actively increase inventory in 16 years, and the proportion of land acquisition in 16-19H1 was as high as 56%, 90%, 48%, and 21%. Among them, land acquisition was actively resumed in May of 19th, and the company will increase the amountThe annual investment plan has been increased from the initial 2,700 megabytes to 2,900 megabytes (ten years + 13%), and it is gaining more and more counter-cyclical efforts.
In terms of cost, the average price of land taken in 17-19H1 was 44.
7%, the proportion of the first and second tiers of newly added construction areas were 53%, 55%, and 59%, respectively, and the proportion of urban areas was 66%, 58%, and 69%. The land acquisition structure was optimized and the land acquisition cost was steadily reduced.It is not easy.
In terms of ground holding structure, 19H1 added 30 general-purpose projects accounted for 61.
8%, up 19. from 18 years
2pct, the small-scale project is more conducive to speeding up turnover.
Leading state-owned enterprises have prominent advantages in financing, and the concentration of benefits has increased. Poly property listing is imminent. As a leading state-owned enterprise, the company is expected to increase its status as an important real estate platform of the Poly Group. The financing channels are diverse and the cost is low.Financing method, 19H1 comprehensive financing cost is only 4.
99%, which is the lowest level in the industry, and the cost of 19H1 USD debt and China ticket financing is only 3.
9%, earlier than 18 years 3.
9% went further down.
In the context of tightening financing, the company has both the leading scale advantage and the central enterprise financing advantage. It is expected that the company will obviously benefit from the triple concentration of “financing, land acquisition and sales” in the industry.
In addition, the recent listing of Poly Property is nearing the end of 19M4, and its area under management reached 1.
9.8 billion cubic meters, with a contract area of 3.
With 700 million cubic meters, the comprehensive strength ranking of the top 100 enterprises has maintained the top five since 14 years, and ranks first among state-owned enterprises.
Poly Property’s 16-18 year net profit compound growth rate reached 50%, 4M19 net profit growth rate + 67%, 19 years of gradual 40% growth rate, the 19 year net profit is expected to be 4.
7 trillion, 30 times PE in 19 years, its market value is expected to be 141 trillion, Poly property listing is expected to increase company earnings.
Investment suggestion: Central enterprises are leading, with prominent advantages, undervalued core assets, and the “strong push” of rating companies has been actively changed since 16 years. In terms of goals, chairman Song Guangju proposed to return to the top three in the industry in the next three years, revealing the leadership of central enterprises;In terms of incentives, in 17 years, a vigorous follow-up investment program was launched to lead the highest level of central enterprises to eliminate the criticism of insufficient incentives. In terms of resource integration, the acquisition of real estate projects owned by AVIC Group was completed, and the acquisition of Poly Real Estate’s equity has also made breakthrough progress, showing the advantages of resource integration;In 19 years, the company actively acquired land, focusing on the first and second tiers and urban areas. The optimization of the structure of land acquisition and the steady decline in costs, while the company’s sales continued to increase rapidly, the current performance has entered a bumper period.
In addition, the listing of Poly Property’s Hong Kong stocks is imminent, which is expected to increase the company’s assessment.
We maintain the company’s expected earnings forecast for 2019-21 to 2.
00 yuan, currently 19-20 PE is limited to 6.
6 and 5.
5 times, 3% discount on NAV, 18A, 19E dividend yields of 3 respectively.
7% and 4.
8%, maintain target price of 20.
62 yuan, “strong push” level again.
Risk warning: The real estate industry’s policies have tightened more than expected and industry funds have tightened more than expected.