Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Where is Hengli Refining Strong

Core point of view: In the future, the new capacity of the refining industry will increase, and the macro demand is weak, so the market is skeptical about the profitability of private large refining and chemical companies.

  Different from the market, we believe that although the overall prosperity of the industry is not high, the alpha of private large-scale refining and chemical industry is very strong, that is, through the optimization of product structure and cost reduction, high excess returns can be obtained.

The research focus of this article is to analyze the advantages of Hengli Refining and Chemicals project, so as to prove its profitability.

  The main advantages of Hengli Refining & Chemical include the following: 1: National coal replacement, Hengli has the advantage of coal index.

Many provinces and cities strictly control coal consumption indicators, while Hengli Petrochemical is located in Dalian, Liaoning. As an old industrial base, Liaoning’s industrial coal indicators are relatively loose.

Hengli has a coal chemical production capacity of only 260 tons / year and a coal self-generation capacity of over 300 tons / year, which can significantly reduce costs.

  2: The supporting facilities are complete, and the cost is saved by 1.7 billion yuan compared with the unrefined refinery.

There is a combined heat and power plant in the park, which saves more than one billion yuan in electricity costs each year. With its own wharf, it saves more than 700 million yuan in annual handling costs.

  3: Refers to PetroChina. More than 60% of Sinopec’s refineries have port and port advantages.

  Hengli is located in Changxing Island, with its own wharf and the two major hub ports of Dalian Port and Qinhuangdao Port.

CNPC and Sinopec currently have a total of 55 refineries and only 21 have terminals, accounting for 38%.

  4: Agglomeration effect is obvious.

The Hengli Refining and Chemical Project can produce 450 tons of PX products in total. PTA is adjacent to the PX plant area and can be directly transported through pipelines. Others can save a lot of transportation, transit, and landed costs by about 1.2 billion yuan.

  5: The cost of inferior crude oil can save 西安耍耍网 500 million yuan.

The main raw materials of the Hengli Refining and Chemical Project are 1200 imported sand weight, 600 said in the sand, and 200 said Marin crude oil. Relatively speaking, the purchase price saved 0 per barrel of crude oil.

Calculated at US $ 5, it is estimated to save 500 million yuan in costs.

  6: Hengli Refining & Chemical’s product structure is more reasonable.

Hengli’s 2000 / annual refining and chemical project uses internationally leading process packages, and focuses more on the production of high value-added chemicals. The proportion of refined oil accounts for only 50%, and the proportion of PX reaches 22%.

Hengli canceled the catalytic cracking unit, which could theoretically not produce gasoline, effectively improving profitability.

  Investment advice companies are leading enterprises in the polyester industry.

With the smooth commissioning of refining and chemical projects, the company’s future performance will increase significantly.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/21 will be 91.

1/127.

6/163.

4 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.

29/1.

81/2.

32 yuan, the corresponding PE is 10.

2/7.

3/5.

7 times, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

  Risk warning: the actual cost of oil price increases; downstream demand is less than expected; project construction progress is less than expected.